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Discussion on Self-sufficient Rate of Grain in China based on the Grey Series G (1, 1) Model基于灰色数列G（1，1）模型的中国谷物自给率预测与分析
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将1961年～2005年的可供我国净进口的谷物数量，按照每5年一个时段分组，构建5年为步长的5个灰色数列，采用DPS7.05软件建立灰色数列G（1，1）模型，预测2009年～2020年可供我国净进口的最大谷物数量；参照2004年～2007年的粮食需求状况，设定2009年～2015年的粮食需求水平为400kg/人、2016年～2020年为420kg/人，计算国内粮食消费需求总量；分析1961年～2005年国内粮食消费量构成，确定最小、最大谷物系数，计算国内粮食消费需求中的谷物消费需求总量，再计算国际粮食贸易市场允许我国净进口的谷物数量占国内粮食消费需求总量的比重，最后计算谷物自给率。结果表明，在不影响他国谷物进口和充分利用国际谷物贸易盈余的双重条件约束下，我国在2009年的谷物自给率不低于98%，2010年可能需要我国的谷物净出口， 2012年～2014年不低于96%，2015年不低于97%，2016年、2019年～2020年不低于94%，2017年～2018年不低于97%。进一步提出粮食安全目标下的我国国际粮食贸易和耕地管理的政策性建议。
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Study on characteristics of colored cotton fiber development彩色棉纤维发育的特性研究
Keywords: ,,,cellulose彩色棉纤维,,,,
Pigment matter in fiber cells of brown or green cotton could be extracted by HNO 3/ethanol distillation, and its content could be estimated by absorbance reading at 412 nm for distillation solution Pigment matter in brown or green cotton fiber cells could be obviously detected when fiber cells grown up to about 15 days post anthesis (DPA), reaching a maximum content at 20 DPA Fiber color change from white to brown in the boll of brown cotton was not found until 30 35 DPA, and brown color was very stable and even deepening in the sunlight However, fiber in the green cotton boll began to be colored green at 20 DPA, after this, fiber color was gradually deepened with fiber development, but easy to fad in the sunlight Cellulose content in brown or green cotton fiber was significantly lower than in white cotton fiber, which might be caused by accumulation of fiber pigment matter Between 15 and 30 DPA, the pH in white fiber cells lowered rapidly, while that in brown or green fiber cells slowly It was suggested that a rapid or slow decline for fiber cell pH during this period might bring some effects on fiber cell elongation, secondary wall synthesis and color change Comparing with white fiber, quality of brown or green colored fibers was lower, such as shorter length and weaker strength, which possible reason was discussed in the paper
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